Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Thoughts On Tolerance...

I understand why casinos back off advantage players.  If a casino were to allow a competent advantage player to sit at its tables 40 hours per week, 52 weeks per year, that AP would literally drain money from the casino's coffers to a material extent.

But, what about the AP who travels frequently, so that he's hitting, say, 250 stores each year, at an average of four hours per location?  Should a casino really sweat that action?

I think not.  Over the course of 4 hours, an AP with a healthy $250/hour EV would have a long-term expectation of winning $1,000 from that casino in that given year.  The actual result will likely be materially more or less - but is the casino really risking that much in exchange for giving up, say, a 1% edge for that four hours?   

Of course not.  As anyone who does this knows, the casino actually stands to win a great deal over those four hours in the very feasible event that variance happens to run against the AP in that limited timeframe.  And isn't that the spirit of the battle?  Two opponents slugging it out in what amounts to sudden death overtime - either has a nearly equal chance of coming out on top in that limited timeframe, and they'll leave shaking hands as worthy adversaries regardless of the outcome?  

I sense that there are at least some casinos that recognize this.  I'm in a region at the moment where I've played (as a stranger passing through) in at least a couple of spots where it would have been obvious to anyone with a pulse what I was up to - and while I received some interest from the pit in terms of observation over the course of a few hours, it certainly wasn't anything along the lines of what I'd consider heat.

Here's hoping that's more than just my imagination, or wishful thinking in terms of intent.  

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

First trip in the Age of Coronavirus...

My first extended trip in a new region... I got in about 40 hours of play, which was curtailed primarily as a result of the Islanders playing deep into the postseason.  I suspect I would have been able to compile close to an additional 10 hours if there weren't five games I needed to watch during the 9.5 day trip.  At least the Islanders won the series.

Oddly enough, I met a dude who was born in Philly in the local sportsbook, as we were simultaneously placing bets on the opposing teams.  We ended up watching the game in the sportsbook - and it wasn't until overtime that we realized we were both blackjack players and members of the BJA site.  Small world...

Couldn't really get much traction on this trip.  I ended up down a whopping $15 when all was said and done.  The region seemed incredibly sweaty to me, so I was constantly having to curtail my time at the tables after rounds of increased betting drew extensive heat from the pit.  During my final session on my final day (at an out of the way independent spot), I decided I would play full-throttle to see what would happen.  Like clockwork, I was flat bet in about 2.5 hours.  I didn't react well to this, as I indignantly demanded the obviously senior PC's info - who then proceeded to have security ensure I left the premises.

If anything, I can chalk this one up to a re-acclimation experience, as I have my next trip in a couple of weeks.  A couple of key things to consider/remember:

  • Man, do dealers make mistakes.  And pit people.  At one point, a dealer paid me on pushes three separate times in about 10 minutes - and nearly every single final color up that involved a lot of sub-denominations caused errors approved by the pit.  In one instance, a dealer was prepared to underpay me by about $50.  When I called the mistake to her and the PCs attention, they recounted - and then proceeded to overpay me by about $25 (which I let go, as I didn't want them to suffer the embarrassment of a second correction).  😁 

  • There's no point in fighting with pit people.  Once they decide to back you off, challenging the point earns nothing except the greater likelihood they will remember you upon your return in a year or so.
To wrap things up, I did benefit from a couple of additional AP plays.  First, the rental car company had the audacity to tell me they ran out of rental cars, and could therefore not fulfill my prepaid reservation.  Well, no - I raised quite the stink and got them to give me a car that had not yet been "sanitized" for coronavirus, in exchange for their taking $80 off of the bill.  Second, upon my return to my local airport, I discovered that Delta had - yet again - broken the handle on my luggage.  I complained once again, and this time - unlike previous occurrences when I was told broken handles are considered "cosmetic" and something for which Delta is therefore not responsible - the airline gave me a brand new piece of luggage of a much higher quality.  They apparently stock these things for this purpose. 

Also finished writing the words to "Stop On the Line" during my road travel.  I feel like the song turned out very well...