Thoughts On Tolerance...

I understand why casinos back off advantage players.  If a casino were to allow a competent advantage player to sit at its tables 40 hours per week, 52 weeks per year, that AP would literally drain money from the casino's coffers to a material extent.

But, what about the AP who travels frequently, so that he's hitting, say, 250 stores each year, at an average of four hours per location?  Should a casino really sweat that action?

I think not.  Over the course of 4 hours, an AP with a healthy $250/hour EV would have a long-term expectation of winning $1,000 from that casino in that given year.  The actual result will likely be materially more or less - but is the casino really risking that much in exchange for giving up, say, a 1% edge for that four hours?   

Of course not.  As anyone who does this knows, the casino actually stands to win a great deal over those four hours in the very feasible event that variance happens to run against the AP in that limited timeframe.  And isn't that the spirit of the battle?  Two opponents slugging it out in what amounts to sudden death overtime - either has a nearly equal chance of coming out on top in that limited timeframe, and they'll leave shaking hands as worthy adversaries regardless of the outcome?  

I sense that there are at least some casinos that recognize this.  I'm in a region at the moment where I've played (as a stranger passing through) in at least a couple of spots where it would have been obvious to anyone with a pulse what I was up to - and while I received some interest from the pit in terms of observation over the course of a few hours, it certainly wasn't anything along the lines of what I'd consider heat.

Here's hoping that's more than just my imagination, or wishful thinking in terms of intent.  

First trip in the Age of Coronavirus...

My first extended trip in a new region... I got in about 40 hours of play, which was curtailed primarily as a result of the Islanders playing deep into the postseason.  I suspect I would have been able to compile close to an additional 10 hours if there weren't five games I needed to watch during the 9.5 day trip.  At least the Islanders won the series.

Oddly enough, I met a dude who was born in Philly in the local sportsbook, as we were simultaneously placing bets on the opposing teams.  We ended up watching the game in the sportsbook - and it wasn't until overtime that we realized we were both blackjack players and members of the BJA site.  Small world...

Couldn't really get much traction on this trip.  I ended up down a whopping $15 when all was said and done.  The region seemed incredibly sweaty to me, so I was constantly having to curtail my time at the tables after rounds of increased betting drew extensive heat from the pit.  During my final session on my final day (at an out of the way independent spot), I decided I would play full-throttle to see what would happen.  Like clockwork, I was flat bet in about 2.5 hours.  I didn't react well to this, as I indignantly demanded the obviously senior PC's info - who then proceeded to have security ensure I left the premises.

If anything, I can chalk this one up to a re-acclimation experience, as I have my next trip in a couple of weeks.  A couple of key things to consider/remember:

• Man, do dealers make mistakes.  And pit people.  At one point, a dealer paid me on pushes three separate times in about 10 minutes - and nearly every single final color up that involved a lot of sub-denominations caused errors approved by the pit.  In one instance, a dealer was prepared to underpay me by about $50.  When I called the mistake to her and the PCs attention, they recounted - and then proceeded to overpay me by about $25 (which I let go, as I didn't want them to suffer the embarrassment of a second correction).  😁 
  
  
• There's no point in fighting with pit people.  Once they decide to back you off, challenging the point earns nothing except the greater likelihood they will remember you upon your return in a year or so.

To wrap things up, I did benefit from a couple of additional AP plays.  First, the rental car company had the audacity to tell me they ran out of rental cars, and could therefore not fulfill my prepaid reservation.  Well, no - I raised quite the stink and got them to give me a car that had not yet been "sanitized" for coronavirus, in exchange for their taking $80 off of the bill.  Second, upon my return to my local airport, I discovered that Delta had - yet again - broken the handle on my luggage.  I complained once again, and this time - unlike previous occurrences when I was told broken handles are considered "cosmetic" and something for which Delta is therefore not responsible - the airline gave me a brand new piece of luggage of a much higher quality.  They apparently stock these things for this purpose. 

Also finished writing the words to "Stop On the Line" during my road travel.  I feel like the song turned out very well... 

Back on the sidelines (a lost 12 months)....

It just dawned on me that it was almost a year ago that I broke my leg, which required me to stay away from casinos for several months.  Thanks to coronavirus, I've just cancelled my third straight month of travel.  I've been out of action now for a significant portion of the last 12 months. 

Was hoping the casinos in many regions would have reopened by now, but that doesn't appear to be the case.

My next scheduled trip is in July.  I have nothing scheduled in June; will wait to see how things develop in terms of reopenings prior to making any arrangements.  My first goal is to see if/when the standard annual March promotion offered in a relatively local spot is rescheduled... don't want to unnecessarily create a travel conflict. 

A New Decade...

Closed out 2019 with a combination win at both blackjack and poker in the same little cardroom (the corporation covers the bj antes, so it's still a profitable game - notwithstanding the spread limitation they've imposed for the purpose of thwarting counters).

I've recently added live poker back to my repertoire, and it's working out well thus far.  I stopped playing live poker several years back, in the wake of my failed relationship with a ”professional" high stakes player who ultimately convinced me that my approach to the game was suboptimal.  In hindsight, I realize now that I'm actually a better player than she was.

Playing higher-stakes blackjack has also helped my poker game in ways I hadn't anticipated - owing to the fact that the swings in bj have helped foster the "healthy disregard for money" that is vital for any successful poker player or AP.  I find myself using chips as tools much more effectively now - allowing me to "play the player" much more than I'd ever done in the past.  

It will be interesting to see how much poker factors into my AP exploits in 2020...

On the road...

At an interstate Denny's, getting an afternoon grand slam breakfast.  Started the day with a nice win at a travel stop casino with $200 maximums and not the greatest deck penetration.  But, caught an extremely positive shoe and won more from them then they're likely used to in about 20 minutes.  Made up a bit for a miserable couple of days in the region I just left.

Heading to my last stop on this cross-country trip that was necessitated by my dad's passing earlier this year.  With the old family home now vacant, I had to make one final visit to arrange for visits from property managers and clear out everything I planned to keep.  Filled up my dad's car with sentimental items, and in the process of driving it back across the country.  I like to think it's the old family vacations we used to take when I was a child that makes me love life on the road as much as I do.  Thanks, Dad.

Been hitting casinos all along the way, with a purpose - slightly up at the tables for the trip, but pretty much flirting with the breakeven line at this point.  Would like my last stop to push me well into the black...

Sidelines...

Broke my leg playing hockey over Memorial Day weekend, which led to blood clots and a pulmonary embolism I'm told nearly claimed my life.  Can't say that I now feel any greater sense of purpose or anything - but it does so happen that things seem to now be falling into place for my grand plan.

Did some recording with my producer yesterday up in Los Angeles, and floated the idea of creating albums just like Jeff Lynne would do with the Electric Light Orchestra back in the 70s... with a complete (32 piece?) string section.  Matt confirmed that this is certainly doable - with an option to record in Prague (phenomenal musicians at a fraction of what the cost would be in the U.S.).

Music being what it is these days, there are some really phenomenal musicians out there who love the idea of working on records they think are cool.  I'm not suggesting I'm an amazing artist or anything, but the feedback I've gotten thus far does seem to indicate that pros who have tons of experience working with some pretty successful artists do enjoy working on my projects.  I think they see me as a throwback to a different era.  Well, whatever the reason - it's amazing to know that I'll have access to the personnel required to create the project that I want.  All it will take is some money. 

Spent a lot of time last week figuring out a manual algorithm for identifying the most cost-effective flight schedules for nine regions of the country over the course of a year.  The idea is to take one extended trip per month (to those nine regions, plus another three that are more local and won't require flight), each consisting of a Friday through the following weekend (10 days) with a target of 45 hours of play during each.  The remaining weekends each month will be split among 3 more local regions that I hit regularly - with an aim of getting in another 40 hours per month among the three of them.  That total target of 85 hours per month should get me to 1,000 hours per year - and a projected win of over $100K at my simmed winrate.  That should go a long way towards creating a base for my recording endeavors.

For now, I need to be patient, as I've yet to regain full use of my broken limb.  Hopefully I'll be travelling regularly by the 1st of January.       

Round 2. Game 2

Sitting in a sports bar just before noon in a nearby southwestern city awaiting the start of the Islanders game.  Yes, it is late April and they are still playing - a relatively rare occurrence in recent decades for this franchise.  Hopefully they can pull this one out and tie up the series against a young, hard-working Carolina team.

Played last nite for a bit at one of the nearby Vegas style casinos - one of those spots where I seem to consistently win, and never seem to garner too much heat.  A function of quick hits and playing the later shifts, most likely.  Was in for 1500 last nite before pulling out a 650 win after a couple of hours.  Added to my 750 win the nite before at a spot about 2 hours north, well... not a bad result for four hours of work.

Spent last weekend in a northern city where they have the best JoB video poker game in the country.  Normally I expect to give this spot some expected value on this game in exchange for the resulting comps - but this was an odd weekend where I literally killed it playing video poker (5 single line royal flushes in 4 days on a 50-play machine), but got crushed in blackjack.  The last couple of days are a good start towards recovering from that debacle...